Global Risk Predictor • Family Office Dashboard

Portfolio Heatmap

Holding	Score	Trend	Horizon
Catnat Construction	🔴 0.25	↘ Deteriorating	6-9 months
Tribut Industry	🔴 0.19	↘ Deteriorating	6-9 months
Coline Luxury	🟢 0.82	→ Stable	>12 months
Lilan Technology	🟢 0.51	↗ Improving	>12 months

Risk Concentration

2 holdings = 52% of extreme risk
Catnat and Tribut concentrate €13M of critical exposure

Temporal Evolution

Catnat • Construction

3 thresholds crossed

M-36 → M-0 : -71% score

Deterioration detected 18 months before covenant breach

M-18 : Covenant warning

Score already at 0.58 (-32% since M-36)

M-6 : Covenant breach

Score at 0.32, penalties activated

Tribut • Industry

Continuous deterioration

M-36 → M-0 : -76% score

Signal detected 12 months before DSO alert

M-24 : Margin decline

Score at 0.65, -15% margin

M-6 : Net debt/EBITDA > 5x

Score at 0.28, critical situation

Actionable Alerts

Deterioration detected before accounting indicators

Catnat score dropped from 0.85 to 0.25 in 36 months

CRITICAL

Extreme risk > 32% of NAV

Tribut: €8M exposure, 80% default probability

CRITICAL

Weak sector signals accumulating

2/2 Construction/Industry holdings in critical zone

SECTORIAL

Continuous improvement detected

Coline: Score improved from 0.65 to 0.82 in 24 months

POSITIVE

Insights & Priority Actions

Critical Horizon: 6-9 Months

Catnat and Tribut require immediate action.
Deterioration is advanced, covenants are already breached.

🚨 High urgency 💰 €13M at risk

Trend > Current Level

The speed of deterioration matters more than the score.

Catnat -0.017/month

Tribut -0.016/month

Resilience Detected

Coline shows exceptional resilience.
Score of 0.82 with 10% default probability.

🏆 40% of portfolio secured

Retrospective: "Yes, we could have seen it coming"

The model detects weak signals with an average 14-month lead time

Catnat

Signal detected at M-24 (score 0.72)
18 months before covenant breach

Tribut

Signal detected at M-18 (score 0.52)
12 months before DSO alert

Model Accuracy

92% detections confirmed
14 months average lead